Farzana Shah
janashah_1@yahoo.com
On December 01, 2009, the US President Barak Obama announced much awaited new policy for Afghanistan and Pakistan “The New Way Forward” at the Eisenhower Hall Theatre, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York. The focus is on eliminating Al-Qaeda and hardcore Taliban leadership, capacity building of Afghan security forces and the civilian institutes in Pakistan and strengthening of the democracy in both countries.
The new policy is continuation of Af-Pak doctrine announced on 27th March 2009 by President Obama, except that a time frame of 18 months has been given now for the commencement of the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan after handing over the security responsibilities to Afghan forces.
According to President Obama, US security is directly tied up to the US and NATO victory in Afghanistan. To achieve this goal 30,000 more US troops will join the 68,000 US forces already in Afghanistan. This move was much anticipated as the US has failed to control Taliban insurgency in some parts of Afghanistan and the US President acknowledged this fact.
It is the second time after Barak Obama took over as President in 2008 that the US has announced troops surge in Afghanistan. The first troop surge of 17,000 men was announced earlier in March this year.
Many analysts believe that the stipulated time frame of 18 months for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is too ambitious and not very realistic keeping the progress in Afghanistan during the last eight years in mind.
Eighteen months is too narrow a span to achieve an environment that the US planners deem achievable for Afghanistan’s development and security. President Obama has announced too many tasks for the US and NATO allies and it is feared that most of these targets will not be met by the end of 2011. Training more than 180,000 Afghan army and police force, searching and destroying Al-Qaeda leadership in Pakistan Afghanistan border areas, eliminating corruption from Afghan government, handing over of certain areas to the newly trained Afghan forces, making Taliban so weak through use of force that they accept Afghan government’s writ and at the same time negotiating with some of ‘good’ Taliban groups are some of the tasks which President Obama had set to meet in his Af-Pak policy in March this year and has reiterated them again in his speech at West Point Academy.
The New Way Forward in Afghanistan consists of three major components. A quick review of each one of these could help gauge chances of its success in Afghanistan.
A) – Use of Military force to create a conducive environment for change in Afghanistan.
B) – Aid to Civilians to strengthen positive developments.
C) - A broader relationship with Pakistan.
Use of Military Force: It is hard to tell with certainty about the outcome of fresh troop surge in Afghanistan. Looking at the fate of the earlier such troops surge it is feared that recent move too might meet the same fate.
There is no clearly defined enemy or his dispositions. On the top of it he has the initiative and option to strike at the time and place of his choosing. Also most of the reinforcement troops are likely to be deployed along the Durand line as in recent months, after the Allied forces launched a major offensive in Helmand province near Pakistani border, Taliban have strengthened their control in the North due to less US /NATO presence in these provinces. US/NATO may have to change deployment plans for the fresh troops across Afghanistan as it would be not possible to keep the Taliban under check who employ hit and run guerrilla tactics and move swiftly to other safe places after striking at one.
Public apathy is another big factor to be noted. The common man in Afghanistan widely believes that the US and NATO have occupied his country. To counter this overwhelming feeling of the masses Allied forces will need to make fundamental changes in their tactics against Taliban in the urban areas. Over the years hundreds of innocent civilians have been killed in aerial attacks either on the basis of wrong intelligence or as the collateral damage.
Aid to Civilians: The execution of this second step would only be possible if the first step pays substantial dividends in reducing Taliban fighting capability.
Broader Relationship with Pakistan: Third step in the strategy is linked to Pakistan, though there is not much change in the policy towards Pakistan that was announced in Af-Pak. However, it was for the first time that President Obama publicly acknowledged that the relationship with Pakistan had not been maintained by the USA on a broader cooperation and mutual trust and respect required of it. There was a clear deficit of trust exhibited between the Pak and US officials during the recent visit of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The role of US/CIA in Afghanistan and its impact on Pakistan’s security came under severe criticism in her interaction with Pakistani media and intelligentsia. Next, reaction of the Pakistani security establishment and masses over Kerry-Lugar bill also made the US administration to have a second thought about Pakistan and its interests.
Security situation in Pakistan has suffered seriously since 2001 when Pakistan decided to join hands with the US and Allied forces in Afghanistan. Very recently the Pakistan army had to launch a massive military offensive to uproot the terrorists from Swat district in Northern Pakistan which had nearly fell to the Taliban. Thanks to public support and the political will Pakistan army managed not only to regain lost territory but also eliminated almost all top leadership of extremists in Swat. The army is engaged now in clearing the Taliban out of South Waziristan agency in FATA area. As the decision to support the US offensive in Afghanistan was not taken by a politically elected government, the masses remained and still remain against it. Pakistan’s such efforts have been recognized by Obama and he has vowed to start a new strategic level partnership with Pakistan to overcome the afore-mentioned mistrust.
As Obama administration is ready to start a new phase of relationship between the two countries, there are still a few unresolved issues like difference between Pentagon and GHQ, Rawalpindi on the threat perception in the War on Terror. Major difference stems from the battle grounds on either side of Durand line where both the armies are fighting two separate adversaries. Pakistan fighting the TTP (Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan) - Pakistani Taliban but having a support base in Afghanistan and the US fighting the Afghan Taliban who are perceived to have the support base on the Pakistani side of the border.
This deadlock between Pakistan and US can jeopardize the whole campaign against terrorism and must be resolved as soon as possible. Pakistani officials believe that terrorism in Pakistan has its origin in Afghanistan and US is not doing enough to stop it. On the other hand the US administration believes that Pakistan must do more in order to eliminate Al-Qaeda safe havens on the Pakistani side of border.
Only workable “New Way Forward” can be a comprehensive solution based on mutual trust and respect for each other’s interests. US has interest in the region as it is critical for the safety of its citizens but at the same time she must understand that safety of US citizens cannot be at the cost of Pakistan citizens.
The toughest challenge for Obama administration at the moment is to gain support of the local public in Afghanistan and Pakistan against Al-Qaeda and Taliban. Unless US wins the hearts and minds of the common man, the wider support for the new American policy in the region and its success would remain a dream.
Source:paktribune.com/
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